E like me ka helu hope loa maiʻO Gartner, Manaʻo ʻia ʻo Samsung Electronics e loaʻa hou i kona kūlana ma ke ʻano hemea kūʻai semiconductor nui loae pili ana i ka loaʻa kālā, ʻoi aku ma mua o Intel. Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole i hoʻokomo ʻia kēia ʻikepili i ka TSMC, ka mea hoʻokumu nui loa o ka honua.
Ua ʻike hou ʻia ka loaʻa kālā o Samsung Electronics me ka maikaʻi ʻole o ka hana ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā o DRAM a me NAND flash memory. ʻO SK Hynix, ka mea i loaʻa ka waiwai ikaika i ka mākeke hoʻomanaʻo kiʻekiʻe-bandwidth (HBM), e manaʻo ʻia e piʻi i ka ʻehā o ka honua i kēia makahiki.
Ke wānana nei ka ʻoihana noiʻi mākeke ʻo Gartner e piʻi ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor honua e 18.1% mai ka makahiki i hala (US $ 530 biliona) i US $ 626 biliona ma 2024. Ma waena o lākou, ʻo ka huina kālā o nā mea hoʻolako semiconductor 25 kiʻekiʻe e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻonui ʻia e 21.1% makahiki-ma-makahiki, a ua manaʻo ʻia ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka mākeke ma 75.2% mai 75.3% a hiki i 75.3%. 2024, he piʻi o 1.9 pakeneka.
E kū'ē i ke kua o ka hoʻokele waiwai honua, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka polarization o ka noi no nā huahana semiconductor AI e like me HBM a me nā huahana kuʻuna, e hopena i ka hana hui ʻana no nā hui semiconductor. Manaʻo ʻia ʻo Samsung Electronics e loaʻa hou ka poʻokela i nalowale iā Intel ma 2023 i loko o hoʻokahi makahiki. ʻO ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor o Samsung i ka makahiki i hala ua manaʻo ʻia he US $ 66.5 biliona, ʻoi aku ka 62.5% mai ka makahiki i hala.
Ua hōʻike ʻo Gartner "ma hope o ʻelua mau makahiki o ka emi ʻana, ua hoʻonui nui ʻia ka loaʻa kālā o ka huahana hoʻomanaʻo i ka makahiki i hala," a wānana ʻo Samsung ka awelika o ka ulu ʻana o ka makahiki i nā makahiki ʻelima i hala aku nei e hiki i 4.9%.
Ua wānana ʻo Gartner e ulu ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor honua i 17% i 2024. Wahi a ka wānana hope loa a Gartner, manaʻo ʻia ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor honua e ulu 16.8% i $ 624 biliona ma 2024. Ua manaʻo ʻia e emi ka mākeke 10.9% i 2023 a i $ 534 biliona.
"Ke hoʻokokoke nei ʻo 2023 i kahi kokoke, koi ikaika no nā chips e like me nā kiʻi kiʻi kiʻi (GPU) e kākoʻo ana i nā hana hana AI ʻaʻole lawa e hoʻopau i ka emi ʻana o nā helu pālua i ka ʻoihana semiconductor i kēia makahiki," wahi a Alan Priestley, ka hope pelekikena a me ka loiloi ma Gartner. "ʻO ka emi ʻana o ka noi mai nā kelepona a me nā mea kūʻai aku PC, i hui pū ʻia me nā hoʻolimalima nāwaliwali i nā kikowaena data a me nā kikowaena data hyperscale, e pili ana i ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā i kēia makahiki."
Eia nō naʻe, manaʻo ʻia ʻo 2024 he makahiki rebound, me nā loaʻa kālā no nā ʻano chip āpau e ulu ana, e alakaʻi ʻia e ka ulu ʻelua-helu i ka mākeke hoʻomanaʻo.
Manaʻo ka mākeke hoʻomanaʻo honua e emi iho e 38.8% i 2023, akā hoʻi hou i 2024 me ka piʻi ʻana o 66.3%. Manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule ka loaʻa kālā hoʻomanaʻo uila NAND e 38.8% i 2023 i $ 35.4 biliona, ma muli o ka nāwaliwali o ka noi a me ka oversupply e alakaʻi ana i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai. I nā mahina 3-6 e hiki mai ana, manaʻo ʻia nā kumukūʻai NAND i lalo a e hoʻomaikaʻi ke kūlana no nā mea hoʻolako. Manaʻo nā mea loiloi ʻo Gartner i ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana i ka makahiki 2024, me ka piʻi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā i $53 biliona, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka makahiki he 49.6%.
Ma muli o ka hoʻonui nui a me ka lawa ʻole o ka noi, ke alualu nei nā mea hoʻolako DRAM i nā kumukūʻai mākeke e hōʻemi i ka waihona. Manaʻo ʻia ka nui o ka mākeke DRAM e hoʻomau i ka hapaha ʻehā o 2023, e alakaʻi ana i kahi rebound kumukūʻai. Eia naʻe, ʻaʻole e ʻike ʻia ka hopena piha o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai a hiki i 2024, ke manaʻo ʻia ka loaʻa kālā o DRAM e ulu 88% i $ 87.4 biliona.
ʻO ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) a me nā hiʻohiʻona ʻōlelo nui ke koi nei i nā kikowaena GPU hana kiʻekiʻe a me nā kāleka accelerator i nā kikowaena data. Pono kēia i ka hoʻokomo ʻana i nā mea hoʻokele hana i nā kikowaena kikowaena data e kākoʻo i ka hoʻomaʻamaʻa ʻana a me ka hoʻohālikelike ʻana i nā hana hana AI. Manaʻo ka poʻe loiloi ʻo Gartner ma ka makahiki 2027, ʻo ka hoʻohui ʻana o ka ʻenehana AI i nā noi kikowaena data e hopena i ka ʻoi aku ma mua o 20% o nā kikowaena hou i loaʻa nā accelerators hana.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Jan-20-2025