Wahi a nā helu helu hou loa maiGartner, manaʻo ʻia e loaʻa hou iā Samsung Electronics kona kūlana ma ke ʻano heka mea hoʻolako semiconductor nui loama ke ʻano o ka loaʻa kālā, e ʻoi aku ana ma mua o Intel. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole i hoʻokomo ʻia kēia ʻikepili iā TSMC, ka hale hana hao nui loa o ka honua.
Me he mea lā ua piʻi hou ka loaʻa kālā o Samsung Electronics ʻoiai ka hana maikaʻi ʻole ma muli o ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā o ka hoʻomanaʻo flash DRAM a me NAND. ʻO SK Hynix, nona ka pōmaikaʻi ikaika ma ka mākeke hoʻomanaʻo bandwidth kiʻekiʻe (HBM), e manaʻo ʻia e piʻi i kahi ʻehā ma ka honua i kēia makahiki.
Ua wānana ka ʻoihana noiʻi mākeke ʻo Gartner e piʻi aʻe ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor honua ma 18.1% mai ka makahiki i hala (US$530 biliona) a i US$626 biliona ma 2024. I waena o lākou, manaʻo ʻia e piʻi aʻe ka huina kālā o nā mea hoʻolako semiconductor kiʻekiʻe he 25 ma 21.1% i kēlā me kēia makahiki, a manaʻo ʻia e piʻi aʻe ka māhele mākeke mai 75.3% i ka makahiki 2023 a i 77.2% i ka makahiki 2024, he piʻi ʻana o 1.9 pakeneka.
I ke kua o ka emi ʻana o ka hoʻokele waiwai honua, ua hoʻonui ʻia ka polarization o ke koi no nā huahana semiconductor AI e like me HBM a me nā huahana kuʻuna, e hopena ana i ka hana hui ʻia no nā ʻoihana semiconductor. Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻihoʻi hou ʻo Samsung Electronics i ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe i nalowale iā Intel i ka makahiki 2023 i loko o hoʻokahi makahiki. Ua manaʻo ʻia ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor a Samsung i ka makahiki i hala he US$66.5 biliona, he 62.5% i piʻi aʻe mai ka makahiki i hala.
Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Gartner "ma hope o ʻelua mau makahiki o ka emi ʻana, ua piʻi nui ka loaʻa kālā o nā huahana hoʻomanaʻo i ka makahiki i hala," a ua wānana ʻo ia e hiki aku ka awelika o ka ulu makahiki o Samsung i nā makahiki ʻelima i hala i ka 4.9%.
Ua wānana ʻo Gartner e ulu ana ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor honua i 17% i ka makahiki 2024. Wahi a ka wānana hou loa a Gartner, manaʻo ʻia e ulu ka loaʻa kālā semiconductor honua i 16.8% i $624 biliona i ka makahiki 2024. Manaʻo ʻia e emi ana ka mākeke i 10.9% i ka makahiki 2023 i $534 biliona.
"I ka pau ʻana o 2023, ʻo ke koi ikaika no nā ʻāpana e like me nā ʻāpana hana kiʻi (GPU) e kākoʻo ana i nā ukana hana AI ʻaʻole lawa ia e hoʻopau i ka emi ʻana o ka helu pālua i ka ʻoihana semiconductor i kēia makahiki," wahi a Alan Priestley, hope pelekikena a me ka loiloi ma Gartner. "ʻO ka emi ʻana o ke koi mai nā mea kūʻai aku kelepona akamai a me PC, me ka nāwaliwali o ka hoʻolilo kālā ʻana i nā kikowaena ʻikepili a me nā kikowaena ʻikepili hyperscale, ke hoʻopilikia nei i ka emi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā i kēia makahiki."
Eia nō naʻe, ua manaʻo ʻia ʻo 2024 he makahiki rebound, me nā loaʻa kālā no nā ʻano chip āpau e ulu ana, i hoʻokele ʻia e ka ulu pālua ʻana o ka mākeke hoʻomanaʻo.
Manaʻo ʻia e emi ana ka mākeke hoʻomanaʻo honua ma 38.8% i ka makahiki 2023, akā e piʻi hou ana i ka makahiki 2024 me ka piʻi ʻana o 66.3%. Manaʻo ʻia e hāʻule ka loaʻa kālā o ka hoʻomanaʻo flash NAND ma 38.8% i ka makahiki 2023 i $35.4 biliona, ma muli o ka nāwaliwali o ke koi a me ka lako nui e alakaʻi ana i ka hāʻule ʻana o nā kumukūʻai. I loko o nā mahina 3-6 e hiki mai ana, manaʻo ʻia e emi iho nā kumukūʻai NAND a e hoʻomaikaʻi ke kūlana no nā mea hoʻolako. Ua wānana nā loiloi Gartner i kahi hoʻōla ikaika i ka makahiki 2024, me ka piʻi ʻana o ka loaʻa kālā i $53 biliona, he piʻi makahiki-ma-makahiki o 49.6%.
Ma muli o ka lako nui a me ke koi lawa ʻole, ke alualu nei nā mea hoʻolako DRAM i nā kumukūʻai mākeke e hōʻemi i ka waihona. Manaʻo ʻia e hoʻomau ka lako nui o ka mākeke DRAM a hiki i ka hapaha ʻehā o 2023, e alakaʻi ana i ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai. Eia nō naʻe, ʻaʻole e ʻike ʻia ka hopena piha o ka piʻi ʻana o ke kumukūʻai a hiki i ka makahiki 2024, i ka wā e manaʻo ʻia ai e ulu ka loaʻa kālā DRAM ma 88% a i $87.4 biliona.
ʻO ka hoʻomohala ʻana o ka naʻauao hana generative (GenAI) a me nā hiʻohiʻona ʻōlelo nui e hoʻoulu nei i ke koi no nā kikowaena GPU hana kiʻekiʻe a me nā kāleka accelerator i nā kikowaena ʻikepili. Pono kēia i ka hoʻolaha ʻana o nā mea hoʻolalelale hana ma nā kikowaena kikowaena ʻikepili e kākoʻo i ke aʻo ʻana a me ka manaʻo o nā hana AI. Manaʻo nā loiloi Gartner ma ka makahiki 2027, ʻo ka hoʻohui ʻana o ka ʻenehana AI i nā noi kikowaena ʻikepili e hopena i ka ʻoi aku ma mua o 20% o nā kikowaena hou i loaʻa nā mea hoʻolalelale hana.
Ka manawa hoʻouna: Ian-20-2025